The Lipstick Index Is Looking A Little Different in 2026

Using data and analytics to unpack the current state of beauty.

Perhaps you’ve heard of “the lipstick index”, one of fashion’s most famous recession indicators. The theory states that lipstick sales correlate with overall economic anxiety as, when times get tough, the first items to rise in popularity are little, inexpensive luxuries. Such as lipstick.

Today’s fashion industry (notably, set against the backdrop of quite a bit of economic anxiety) is no stranger to recession indicators. Theories surrounding which fashion trends could signal looming economic decline dominated fashion discourse in 2025. Was it the rise in popularity of neutral tones? The widespread obsession with nostalgia? The whole “white tank top” craze?

And, while many recession indicators (including the lipstick index) have certainly been debunked a number of times, they’ve also, often, proven true. So, it’s time to check back in and see if the lipstick index still holds in 2026.

THE CURRENT STATE OF LIPSTICK

To understand how consumers are both talking about and engaging with the topic of lipstick online, I did what I usually do and pulled hundreds of online posts published in the past week mentioning the product, their engagement metrics, and their sentiment.

Interestingly, lipstick isn’t currently very popular, especially when compared to other lip products. Actually, lip liner is the most popular by far, currently around 172% more popular on average than lip gloss and lipstick. Lip gloss is then the second-most popular, with lipstick coming in third place. I mean, did Serena van der Woodsen get it right when she said “lipstick lasts longer but gloss is more fun?”!

So, according to the data, people aren’t super into lipstick right now, at least not as much as they’re into other lip-accentuating beauty products. And, as per the lipstick index, this should be a good, optimistic sign, right?

But, actually, this isn’t the whole story. And, there could be something else happening here altogether. Let’s get into it.

It might also be important to note that, last summer, Louis Vuitton released a $160 lipstick as part of their new beauty line in collaboration with Pat McGrath. This raised the question—especially considering how talk of recession indicators was dominating fashion discourse at the time—of just how much luxury brands were trying to recession-proof themselves. You can read more about this below:

A $160 Lipstick And How Fashion Brands Are Probably Trying To Deal With The Great Luxury Slump

INTRODUCING: THE LIP LINER INDEX

As mentioned, according to the data, the most popular lip product at the moment is liner. Though, lip liner’s current stardom is made particularly interesting when you notice how it correlates with lip filler’s (and more permanent, filler-based procedures in general) recent decline in popularity.